Midterms

John Dean:

If the early polls are half correct, independent swing voters have had it with Bush. Democrats want no part of him. Moderate Republicans are keeping their distance; they are no longer willing to hold their noses and vote for him.

The big question is whether there will be an "October Surprise" - a dramatic event that will bump up Bush's currently dismal polling numbers, and help his party. Right now, Republican friends tell me they are doing all they can to keep the mid-terms from being a referendum on Bush. They know they have a better chance if they focus on local races - absent an October Surprise. If you have any knowledge of how White Houses operate, you can be sure they are working night and day to pull off such a surprise.

If they do it, Bush will get away with his lawlessness. If not, he and Cheney are in for two very bad years. They have earned them.

Of course, with the touch-screen voting machines installed around the country as a result of the Help America Vote Act, it's possible that the midterms won't be a referendum on anything, just an empty exercise with a predetermined outcome.

With evidence of election "irregularities" rampant, it's time to stop looking at elections in traditional ways and address what is perhaps the greatest threat to our nation since the secession of the South. Instead of worrying about an October Surprise, which Dean says is all but inevitable (can we expect to see the terror alert level raised a color, based on "credible intelligence"?), we should worry about a November Surprise, in which election results differ wildly from exit polls and voters' party registrations -- all in favor of Republican candidates.

You know, like the surprise we had in Ohio in November 2004.