Monday, October 10, 2005

Questions, questions

Now that the Sox are spectators for the rest of the season, they turn their attention to next year and see questions almost everywhere they look. Let's touch 'em all:

Catcher: Jason Varitek is probably the best all-around catcher in the league, and the Sox have him under contract for three more years.

First base: Kevin Millar, a positive presence in the locker room, is coming off a down year in which he hit .272 with only 9 homers and 50 RBIs. He's not a soild defensive player or a base stealer and he's eligible for free agency, so his return is in doubt.

John Olerud played solid baseball in his role this season, hitting 7 homers and driving in 37 in limited duty. He's a good lefthanded bat off the bench and a good late-inning defensive option. He, too, is a free agent, but at the right price could possibly hang around, even though he turned 37 this season.

Second base: It might not help that what stands out in people's minds when they think "Tony Graffanino" is a key error that led to a Game 2 loss to the White Sox in the ALDS, but Graffanino was an upgrade over Mark Bellhorn at second, hitting .319 for the Sox after coming over from Kansas City. Working against Graffanino's return is his age (33) and the fact that he's eligible for free agency. Plus the Sox have second-round draft pick Dustin Pedroia waiting in the wings and could go with youth at the position next season.

Shortstop: I never did understand the four-year deal the Sox gave to Edgar Renteria before this season, especially when they could have re-signed Orlando Cabrera and with Hanley Ramirez so close to being ready for the bigs. Now Renteria is nursing an injured groin and back. Renteria scored 100 runs this season, but he was a very streaky hitter this season and made a pile of errors. He could be trade bait, but the Sox might have to eat some of what's left of that $40 million contract he signed in December.

Third base: Bill Mueller is a solid, popular player. But how long can he hold off Kevin Youkilis? If the Sox want to go young, and what team doesn't want to get younger, Youkilis, who will be 27 when the first pitch is thrown next season, could replace Mueller, who will be 35 then, at the hot corner.

Designated hitter: This one's easy. David Ortiz is the most valuable player in the league. Period.

Left field: Normally when you have a guy who hits .292 with 45 homers and 144 RBIs and leads the major leagues in outfield assists, you'd say that position is solid. But this is Manny Ramirez, he of the annual trade request. Anything could happen when it's Manny you're talking about, but don't expect the Sox to split up Ortiz and Manny in the 3 and 4 spots in their order.

Center field: Johnny Damon presents the Sox with something of a dilemma: The free-agency eligible outfielder hit .316 with 75 RBIs from the leadoff position and scored 117 runs. He can track them down in the outfield, but his arm lets a lot of runners take a lot of extra bases. Plus he has an ailing right shoulder, which robs him of power at the plate, and he turns 32 next month -- not ancient, but nearing the point when many players' best seasons are behind them. I have to think the Sox will want their leadoff man back, but the status of that shoulder will play a role in contract negotiations.

Right field: Fans and management like Nixon's gritty, no holding back approach. The team signed Nixon to a three-year deal before the 2004 season, so expect him to return.

Starting pitcher: Curt Schilling (8-8, 5.69, 9 saves) will benefit from more time to rehab his right ankle. He showed flashes of his former self this season, but it was apparent that the ankle wasn't 100 percent this season. He's under contract for 2006 with a mutual option for 2007. Next season will determine if Schill will finish his career in Beantown and whether he will do so in 2006 or 2007.

Matt Clement had an uneven season, at 13-6, 4.57. The Sox's other free agent pitching acquisiton, David Wells, performed similarly, going 15-7 with a 4.45 ERA. Each had a good walk/strikeout ratio: Clement fanned 146 and walked 68 in 191 innings; Wells struck out 107 and walked only 21 in 184 innings. Expect Clement to return. Wells' return depends on how he feels about Boston. He complained earlier this year about the amount of attention players receive from fans there, and might ask to be traded.

Tim Wakefield (16-12, 4.15) endured a rough patch of five consecutive losses from mid-May to mid-June, but balanced that with a stretch of four consecutive victories from late July to mid-August. The 39-year-old will start his 11th season with the Sox next April.

Bronson Arroyo, 14-10, was another starter with an ERA over 4.00 (4.51). The Sox need a starter who won't force the offense to score 5 or more runs to win a game. Johnathan Papelbon, who had a 2.45 ERA, albeit in only 34 innings, could join the rotation, possibly moving Arroyo to the bullpen, especially if the oft-injured Wade Miller (4-4, 4.95 in 16 starts) returns or if a free-agent starter is added.

Bullpen: Mike Timlin did a competent job as closer, with 13 saves after taking over the role from Keith Foulke. But Timlin is a free agent, as are fellow bullpen pitchers Mike Myers and Matt Mantei. Of the three, Mantei is the least likely to return. And if Foulke doesn't return to form, he probably won't return to the Sox, either.

As the free-agent picture becomes clearer around the league, I'll look at whom the Sox should target during the hoilday shopping season.

Go Angels!

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