Prediction

President Bush is actively looking for a replacement for retiring Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, his mouthpiece Scotty said today. I'm going to make a prediction on this. Not about who will be selected, because that's irrelevant. I'm going to predict what will be selected, because that's the part that really matters.

My prediction: Bush's choice will be a partisan hack who will merely push the administration's agenda and never introduce reality to the inside of the bubble.

Anybody want to take action on this? I'll lay favorable odds. I wouldn't advise anyone to bet against me, but I'll be happy to take your money if you do.

The reason I'm so certain is that nearly all of Bush's appointments are partisan hacks who tell the president what he wants to hear. Those who didn't are long gone. Remember Colin Powell? Paul O'Neill? The White House isn't taking their calls these days. They've been replaced by Condi Rice, who you know isn't going to rock the bubble, and John "He can stay as long as he wants, provided it is not very long" Snow, who appears to have fallen quietly into line after his job security was publicly threatened.

Some of Bush's appointments have been controversial because they have nothing resembling qualifications for the positions they were given. Consider Paul Wolfowitz at the World Bank. His only experience with underprivileged people is conspiring about how to justify blowing them up. Consider Brownie at FEMA and his predecessor, Joe Allbaugh. The only federal emergency Allbaugh oversaw before his appointment was the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign. Consider who was said to be on the short list to replace Snow when he looked like a short-timer over at Treasury -- Andrew Card, Bush's chief of staff, or "bubble guard," and John Bolton. Consider John Bolton, whose appointment as U.N. ambassador is akin to holding a cow flop contest in your best friend's living room.

Consider Bush's current Supreme Court appointee, Harriet Miers, who has as much experience as a judge as I do. Her main qualification: She's Bush's lawyer. If that's not stacking the deck, what is?

Considering all that, I think I'm on safe ground predicting that people looking for an appointee with vision, wisdom, the best interests of the nation at heart, or even qualifications are going to be disappointed by the president yet again. A friend of mine says, "If BushCo ever makes an appointment I can respect, I'll eat my hat." Her hat appears safe.

Disagree? Bet against me at your own risk.